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Abstract Rapid climate warming has contributed to significant changes in Arctic and boreal vegetation over the past half century. Changes in vegetation can impact wildlife by altering habitat and forage availability, which can affect behavior and range use. However, animals can also influence vegetation through foraging and trampling and therefore play an important role in determining ecosystem responses to climate change. As wildlife populations grow, density‐dependent processes can prompt range expansion or shifts. One mechanism for this is density‐dependent forage reduction, which can contribute to nutritional stress and population declines, and can also alter vegetation change trajectories. We assessed the range characteristics of a migratory caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herd in east‐central Alaska and west‐central Yukon Territory as it grew (1992–2017) then declined (2017–2020). Furthermore, we analyzed the correlation between caribou relative spatial density and vegetation change over this period using remotely sensed models of plant functional type cover. Over this period, caribou population density increased in all seasonal ranges. This was most acute in the calving range where density increased 8‐fold, from 1.5 to 12.0 animals km−2. Concurrent with increasing density, we documented range shifts and expansion across summer, post‐calving and winter ranges. In particular, summer range size doubled (12,000 km2increase) and overlap with core range (areas with repeated year‐round use) was halved. Meanwhile, lichen cover, a key forage item, declined more in areas with high caribou density (2.4% absolute, 22% relative decline in cover) compared to areas where caribou were mostly absent (0.3% absolute, 1.9% relative decline). Conversely, deciduous shrub cover increased more in high caribou density areas. However, increases were dominated by less palatable shrubs whereas more palatable shrubs (i.e., willow [Salixspp.]) were stable or declined slightly. These changes in vegetation cover were small relative to uncertainty in the map products used to calculate change. Nonetheless, correlations between vegetation change and caribou range characteristics, along with concerning demographic trends reported over this same period, suggest changing forage conditions may have played a role in the herd's subsequent population decline. Our research highlights the potential of remotely sensed metrics of vegetation change for assessing the impacts of herbivory and trampling and stresses the importance of in situ data such as exclosures for validating such findings.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available June 1, 2026
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Arctic vegetation communities are rapidly changing with climate warming, which impacts wildlife, carbon cycling and climate feedbacks. Accurately monitoring vegetation change is thus crucial, but scale mismatches between field and satellite-based monitoring cause challenges. Remote sensing from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has emerged as a bridge between field data and satellite-based mapping. We assess the viability of using high resolution UAV imagery and UAV-derived Structure from Motion (SfM) to predict cover, height and aboveground biomass (henceforth biomass) of Arctic plant functional types (PFTs) across a range of vegetation community types. We classified imagery by PFT, estimated cover and height, and modeled biomass from UAV-derived volume estimates. Predicted values were compared to field estimates to assess results. Cover was estimated with root-mean-square error (RMSE) 6.29-14.2% and height was estimated with RMSE 3.29-10.5 cm, depending on the PFT. Total aboveground biomass was predicted with RMSE 220.5 g m-2, and per-PFT RMSE ranged from 17.14-164.3 g m-2. Deciduous and evergreen shrub biomass was predicted most accurately, followed by lichen, graminoid, and forb biomass. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of using UAVs to map PFT biomass, which provides a link towards improved mapping of PFTs across large areas using earth observation satellite imagery.more » « less
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